The Road to Worlds 2013, Week 3 (part II)

by James Hoskin, Director of Organized Play

18th April 2013

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The Road to Worlds 2013, Week 3 began in part I.

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Deck Statistics

There were 8 players at one First Edition tournament this week, taking the total players at First Edition Regional Championships to 15 - an average of 7.5 players per tournament.

The best performing First Edition affiliations to date are Bajoran, averaging 12.0 victory points per tournament; followed by Ferengi, averaging 11.0 victory points; and then Borg, averaging 10.0 victory points. The worst performing affiliations to date are Klingon, averaging 8.0 victory points per tournament; followed by Hirogen, averaging 7.0 victory points; and then Vidiian, averaging 6.0 victory points.

The most popular First Edition affiliations are currently:
1.	Borg	Used by 3 (20%) players
2.	Federation	Used by 2 (13%) players
2.	Ferengi	Used by 2 (13%) players	1 Regional win
2.	Romulan	Used by 2 (13%) players
5.	Bajoran	Used by 1 (7%) player	1 Regional win
5.	Dominion	Used by 1 (7%) player
5.	Hirogen	Used by 1 (7%) player
5.	Klingon	Used by 1 (7%) player
5.	Vidiian	Used by 1 (7%) player
5.	Dual Affiliations	Used by 1 (7%) player

There were 27 players at three Second Edition tournaments this week, taking the total players at Second Edition Regional Championships to 68 - an average of 8.5 players per tournament. Every affiliation has now been played.

The best performing Second Edition affiliations to date are Deep Space 9, averaging 16.5 victory points per tournament; followed by Maquis, averaging 14.5 victory points; and then Original Series, averaging 13.5 victory points. The worst performing affiliations are Bajoran, averaging 10.0 victory points per tournament; followed by Borg, averaging 9.3 victory points, and then Voyager / Equinox, averaging 8.7 victory points.

The most popular Second Edition affiliations are currently:
1.	Klingon	Used by 9 (13%) players	2 Regional wins
1.	Next Generation	Used by 9 (13%) players	1 Regional win
3.	Starfleet	Used by 8 (12%) players	1 Regional win
4.	Dominion	Used by 6 (9%) players	1 Regional win
5.	Earth Space 9	Used by 5 (7%) players
6.	Borg	Used by 4 (6%) players
7.	Bajoran	Used by 3 (4%) players
7.	Cardassian	Used by 3 (4%) players
7.	Relativity	Used by 3 (4%) players
7.	Romulan	Used by 3 (4%) players
7.	Terok Nor	Used by 3 (4%) players
7.	Voyager/Equinox	Used by 3 (4%) players
13.	Deep Space 9	Used by 2 (3%) players	2 Regional wins
13.	Ferengi	Used by 2 (3%) players	1 Regional win
13.	Maquis	Used by 2 (3%) players
13.	Original Series	Used by 2 (3%) players
17.	Non-Aligned	Used by 1 (2%) player

There were 15 players at two Tribbles tournaments this week, taking the total players at Tribbles Regional Championships is 37 - an average of 7.4 players per tournament. Excluding preliminary heats, a total of 12,953,328 Tribbles have been scored to date, an average of 350,089 Tribbles per player. Replicate is the only Big Tribble in Little Qo'noS power to enter the chart this week. The biggest proportion of decks are still not entered though. Come on players and tournament directors, help us find out what is being played.

The most popular Tribbles powers in each deck are:
1.	Unknown?	Used by 10 (27%) players	3 Regional wins
2.	Go	Used by 5 (14%) players
2.	IDIC	Used by 5 (14%) players
4.	Poison	Used by 3 (8%) players
5.	Battle	Used by 2 (5%) players
5.	Rescue	Used by 2 (5%) players
7.	Bonus	Used by 1 (3%) player
7.	Clone	Used by 1 (3%) player
7.	Discard	Used by 1 (3%) player
7.	Freeze	Used by 1 (3%) player
7.	Replicate	Used by 1 (3%) player
7.	Clone/Go	Used by 1 (3%) player	1 Regional win
7.	Go/Exchange	Used by 1 (3%) player
7.	Go/Scan	Used by 1 (3%) player
7.	Poison/Rescue	Used by 1 (3%) player	1 Regional win

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Predictions

James	Kris	Interviewees
6/16 (37.5%)	7/16 (43.8%)	7/16 (44.8%)

2013 Prediction Accuracy

Everyone got at least half of their predictions correct last week. I managed three from six, Kris four from six, and interviewee Nat Kirton (Nate Jeezy) three from six. There is only one prediction separating us overall. This week, Matt Kirk (CaptMDKirk) needs more than 34% prediction accuracy to avoid propping up the interviewee's table. Good luck to everyone!

Past Interviewee Prediction Accuracy
Week 2	Nat Kirton (Nate Jeezy)	3/6 (50.0%)
Week 1	Sean O'Reilly (Jono)	4/9 (44.4%)

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Week 3 Preview

The complete schedule can be found in the article 2013 Regional Championships Schedule. There are eight Regional tournaments this week:

Saturday 20th April		Sunday 21st April
First Edition (Sealed OTF) Good Games Brisbane 74 Little Edward Street Spring Hill, QLD 4000 Australia [Discuss] [Pre-register]	Second Edition (Standard) Loyalitetsbureuaet Jens Baggesens Vej 47 8200 Aarhus N Denmark [Discuss] [Pre-register]	Tribbles (Standard) Good Games Brisbane 74 Little Edward Street Spring Hill, QLD 4000 Australia [Discuss] [Pre-register]	Second Edition (Standard) Good Games Brisbane 74 Little Edward Street Spring Hill, QLD 4000 Australia [Discuss] [Pre-register]
Second Edition (Standard) CodCon College of DuPage Student Resource Center 425 Fawell Boulevard Glen Ellyn, IL 60137 United States [Discuss] [Pre-register]	Tribbles (Standard) CodCon College of DuPage Student Resource Center 425 Fawell Boulevard Glen Ellyn, IL 60137 United States [Discuss] [Pre-register]	First Edition (Sealed Warp Speed) CodCon College of DuPage Student Resource Center 425 Fawell Boulevard Glen Ellyn, IL 60137 United States [Discuss] [Pre-register]
Second Edition (Standard) KFC Restaurant 9300 Midlothian Turnpike Richmond, VA 23235 United States [Discuss] [Pre-register]

Good Games Brisbane (First Edition): Eight players have pre-registered for this Briar Patch Regional. The local Brisbane players are being joined by a contingent of players making the 575 mile (925 Kilometer) trip up the coast from Sydney. For the third year, this Regional will be a sealed event. This time, each player will receive an OTSD and a random TNG-Block starter deck. When looking for a winner, we need look no further than two-time past winner of this Regional Ben Dillon (Broshak). He has a 75% winning record in sealed tournaments with only five losses in 20 games. Ben's chief challenger will be his brother Greg Dillon (Latok), who has finished in second place for the past two years. Elsewhere, a number of players have no Continuing Committee-era history with sealed deck tournaments whatsoever, and they are a big unknown element. Still, I'm picking Ben to retain his title again.

Kris: Ben Dillon to win. Why? The man wins 75% of the steel cage matches he participates in, and is the reigning Regional Champion two times over. With 2 victories in 2 tries at pay per views this year and the strength in numbers that comes with being the captain of the Brain Busters, I expect he'll keep it in the "Family" once again, Gorilla.

Matt: A sealed Regional is always a tricky proposition, and especially so when dealing with the OTSD. Without drafting the cards, it's hard to have an idea what is out there, so you have to prepare for it all. Ben Dillon would seem to be the leading contender based on rating alone, but Matthew Ting has really been making a name for himself this past League season, and I am picking Matt to win. Plus, guys named Matthew build cool decks.

Past First Edition Regional results at Good Games Brisbane:
2012 (sealed), won by Ben Dillon (Broshak).
2011 (alternate venue, sealed), won by Ben Dillon (Broshak) playing Federation / Romulan.
2010, not played.
2009, not played.
2008, not played.

Loyalitetsbueauet: This Second Edition Omarion Nebula Regional returns to Denmark for the fourth year. Previous years have alternated with only Danish players one year and invaders from multiple countries the next. Last year was an all-Dane affair, with Soren Ramme Nielsen (s_ramme) winning his first title on home soil. This year, seven players have pre-registered so far with players from three countries planning to attend. Given the ratings and form, one of four players look likely to take the title: Soren, Tobias Rausmann (garetjax), Peter H. Møller (Peukon) and Nicholas Yankovec (nickyank). Between them they have won 1 World Championship, 5 National Championships, 12 Regional Championships and 2 Chairman's Challenges. None of them have won a Continental Championships, but they do have three runner-up spots to their collective names. With all of that pedigree, my choice to win is... me. Who would have predicted that?

Kris: Tobias Rausmann to win. Why? The Total Package and The Ram each collected Regional gold at home and on the road last year, but according to my sources have never squared off against each other. However, my big brain says that when the dust finally settles the former World's Heavyweight Champion will have put all of his opponents in a Torture Rack or I'm a weasel.

Matt: Talk about a rogues' gallery of players! With only two pre-registered players with ratings under 1600, it's really anyone's game. But I am going to go with Nick Yankovec as the surprise pick to win, since his strategy doesn't always make itself apparent until it's too late for his opponent. And that's the type of X-factor that wins Regionals.

Past Second Edition Regional results at Loyalitetsbueauet:
2012, won by Soren Ramme Nielsen (s_ramme) playing Klingon.
2011, won by Peter H. Moller (Peukon) playing Next Generation.
2010, won by Morten Sandberg (LessQQ) playing Equinox.
2009, not played.
2008, not played.

College of DuPage (Second Edition): The sixth year for this Deep Space 9 Regional could see a record local attendance. The early years saw eight players participate, but there were 14 last year. This year, 13 have pre-registered already, and more are expected. With last year's winner Al Schaefer (ltkettch17) on tournament director duties, the title is up for grabs this time. The highest rated player is fellow writer Kris Sonsteby (LORE). He has two tournament wins from six this year, but the telling statistic is his 75% winning record from 303 games. Casey Wickum (MrCub21) will be a challenge to beat, but he hasn't played a game in over six months and may be a little rusty. Two-time former winner, Michael Van Breemen (The Ninja Scot) is also a threat. However, I'm discounting him because he solicited deck advice from my brother. Michael has no chance if he followed anything Will said. Next up is Edward Pigman (jindrak), who has finished in fourth place for the last two years, but his showing in this week's Qo'noS Regional doesn't bode well for him. With none of these players having a winning record higher than 60%, my pick to win is Kris. I think he'll put an end to his streak of second and third places at his last four Regionals.

Kris: Kris Sonsteby to win. Why? The Old Pro has had Regional gold slip through his fingers in five straight title fights, and has a long history of performing better on the road than at home. With The Sandman standing in as special guest referee, The Wizard coming back from injury, and The People's Champ still licking his wounds from MinnMania, I gotta believe that everyone's favorite tough talking ring announcer is gonna keep it in the "Family," Gorilla.

Matt: Looks like Kris Sonsteby is coming down to try and steal the title from the locals, and it's hard to imagine he won't be able to get the job done. Still, I always root for the underdog, and Michael Van Breemen has been a little too quiet lately... I have a sneaky suspicion he will bring a crazy new broken deck that will catch Kris off-guard. MVB FTW.

Past Second Edition Regional results at College of DuPage:
2012, won by Al Schaefer (ltkettch17) playing Borg.
2011, won by Michael Van Breemen (The Ninja Scot) playing Klingon.
2010, won by Michael Van Breemen (The Ninja Scot) playing Ferengi / Original Series.
2009, won by Mike Burke (ChairmanKoval) playing Voyager.
2008, won by Brian Gondek (Escape Artist) playing Next Generation.

College of DuPage (Tribbles): The Deep Space 9 Regional triple header continues with this Tribbles Regional. 13 players participated at last year's inaugural event, and 13 have pre-registered so far for this year's event. Last year's winner Casey Wickum (MrCub21) hasn't played since last year, but he won four of the eight tournaments he played in 2012. With a similar record, Joshua Sheets (prylardurden) has three wins from five this year; Kris Sonsteby (LORE) has four wins from 18; Steve Nelson (Boratus) has four wins from twelve; and Corbin Johnson (Corbinq27), Michael Moskop (Comicbookhero), Brian Leonard (MrVorlon) all have two wins to their names this year. Tournament director Michael Moskop has a good recent record, and has scored highly too. He is my pick to win.

Kris: Steve Nelson to win. Why? The elder half of the duo invading Fox Glen from The Land of 10,000 Champions put nearly 1.4 million on the board at MinnMania, and has revenge on his mind after failing to earn a submission victory at this venue last April. Considering he put his own grandpa in an armbar at a family reunion recently, I doubt he'll show the local humanoids any mercy.

Matt: I seem to recall a certain Corbin Johnson winning the first Tribbles "tournament" I can remember, way back at the first Phoenix Tournament we ran here in San Diego in 2002. It's been 10 years, but I think Corbin will bring the goods and rank as the top breeder.

Past Tribbles Regional results at College of DuPage:
2012, won by Casey Wickum (MrCub21) playing a Go/Utilize deck.
2011, not played.
2010, not played.
2009, not played.
2008, not played.

KFC Restaurant: This hotly-contested Second Edition Sector 001 Regional has attracted between eight and 16 players in past years. There are seven players pre-registered so far, among them all three former winners of this Regional. Klingon decks have dominated every year except last year, when they weren't even played. Neil Timmons (ntimmons), ranked #3 in the world, always looks dangerous. He has only played in one tournament this year though, and may be a little rusty. Similarly, Charlie Beam (Gooch) only has one tournament under his belt this year, but he did win that one. The third former winner, Ben Hosp (bhosp) has two wins from six tournaments this year, including one with... Klingons. Challenging them will be Phil Schrader (pschrader), who holds his own in the tough New Jersey meta; and Brian Sykes (Armus), who hasn't played much recently, but can win on his day. It all comes back to Neil though. His 79% overall winning record is far superior to that of his opponents, and I think he'll reclaim the title he has twice held before.

Kris: Neil Timmons to win. Why? The Big Show is a former DCW World's Heavyweight Champion, and collected Regional gold in that very arena last year. Mark my words, Gorilla, he'll pick up the win on Saturday because whether we're talking about cutting promos, dirt sheet reports, or title reigns, the word brevity simply isn't in that man's vocabulary.

Matt: Neil Timmons continues to put the numbers up on a monthly basis at local events, but with Brian Sykes and Phil Schrader in the mix, N! is poised for an upset. Sykes to win.

Past Second Edition Regional results at KFC Restaurant:
2012 (alternate venue), won by Ben Hosp (bhosp) playing Next Generation.
2011, won by Neil Timmons (ntimmons) playing Klingon.
2010 (alternate venue), won by Charlie Beam (Gooch) playing Klingon
2009 (alternate venue), won by Neil Timmons (ntimmons) playing Klingon.
2008 (alternate venue), won by Ben Hosp (bhosp) playing Klingon.

Good Games Brisbane (Tribbles): The Briar Patch Regional weekender continues with this Tribbles Regional on Sunday. Five players are currently pre-registered, but we can probably expect more based on the pre-registrations for the First Edition Regional on Saturday. Once again, brothers Ben Dillon (Broshak) and Greg Dillon (Latok) will challenge for the title. Greg is the form player with four wins out of five tournaments he's played this year. Ben took the other victory. The brothers Dillon will face a challenge from Sydney players this year though. Steve Hartmann (chompers) has five tournament wins out of 16 this year, Craig Giblett (Ensign Gibbers) has one win from two tournaments this year, and Kieren Otten (Honest) has four wins from five this year (including the Sydney Regional this week.) The only doubt in my mind is the low scores (usually 300,000-500,000 Tribbles) of the Sydney players, when compared to the free-scoring (400,000-1,900,000 Tribbles) Dillon brothers. I think Greg will retain his title.

Kris: Steve Hartmann to win. Why? After being denied his shot at tag team gold last week in sunny Boden, the King of Harts will likely be out for blood this week in frigid Santa Rosa. Even though the Brain Busters should have him outnumbered 4 to 1 in this Battle Royale, I expect Mr. Hartmann's sharp shooter will be the great equalizer because if the ref doesn't see it, it's not illegal.

Matt: Even though he's lowest on the Tribble tote board of the registered players, I think Kieren will surprise everyone with some new tricks from Big Tribble in Little Qo'noS.

Past Tribbles Regional results at Good Games Brisbane:
2012, won by Greg Dillon (Latok) playing a Utilize deck.
2011, not played.
2010, not played.
2009, not played.
2008, not played.

Good Games Brisbane (Second Edition): The Briar Patch Regional weekender concludes with this Second Edition Regional. This is the third year the Regional has been organized, but it is the first year that it is a constructed event, as opposed to the draft format it has been for the last two years. There are nine players pre-registered so far. Among them, Ben Dillon (Broshak) who has won the last four constructed tournaments at the venue, and his brother Greg Dillon (Latok), who won the three tournaments before that. They'll face a challenge from Steve Hartmann (chompers), with three wins from seven tournaments this year; and Matthew Ting (Wedge772), who has finished in the top three at his last six tournaments. I think this tournament will be a straight fight between Ben and Steve. Ben has a better winning record (71% to Steve's 60%), but Steve has more experience having played more games (312 to Ben's 105) against more players (44 to Ben's 26). Head-to-head, the two have only faced each other once, with Steve winning that one. It's a tough choice, but I'm going to pick Steve to take the title home to Sydney with him.

Kris: Shane Brierley to win. Why? Sugar Shane is the reigning Regional Champion, and excels in singles competition where he can take on members of the Brain Busters stable one at a time. Provided the Canberra Colossus no-shows this event, I gotta believe Sugar will have yet another cup of coffee in the big time.

Matt: It's kind of surprising not to see either of the Clarke brothers pre-registered for a Level 2 event, but I have to think there's at least a chance they will crash the party. I'm taking a chance and calling Lee Clarke to win.

Past Second Edition Regional results at Good Games Brisbane:
2012 (draft), won by Ben Dillon (Broshak) playing Klingon / Next Generation.
2011 (draft), won by Greg Dillon (Latok) playing Bajoran / Cardassian.
2010, not played.
2009, not played.
2008, not played.

College of DuPage (First Edition): This will be the second year a First Edition Regional has been held at CodCon. The inaugural event saw six participants in an OTSD sealed event. This year's format is Voyager Warp Speed. Tournament director Corbin Johnson says "the format is easy to learn and the games will go by very quickly. If you are at all curious about playing, definitely play." Nine players have pre-registered so far. Predicting a winner will be tough given how little this format is used. Michael Van Breemen (The Ninja Scot) has the highest First Edition sealed rating, based on three tournaments (including last year's win). Jason Beyer (sevencrdspud) has played in three tournaments as well, and finished in second place in the last two. Edward Pigman (jindrak) won the most recent of his three tournaments, as did Corbin Johnson (Corbinq27). Nobody really stands out, so I'll let the chat room's die roll take the strain: Michael Van Breemen to retain his title.

Kris: Jeremy Huth to win. Why? Since returning to the T2E ranks back in 2010, Hardcore has been a force of nature in his signature matchup, often seen bringing chairs, barbed wire bats, and even a kitchen sink with 'em to the ring. And given his familiarity with foreign objects, I gotta believe he'll be right at home inside the Steel Cage that is straight sealed.

Matt: Sealed Warp Speed is even more unpredictable than OTSD; your deck's strength is even more influenced by the cards you find in your packs. A couple key cards can mean the difference between squeezing out 1 or 2 more RANGE on a ship to get to that last mission. I have to believe that players with experience in this format are going to have a better idea of what to expect, and therefore I'm picking Jeremy Huth to win.

Past First Edition Regional results at College of DuPage:
2012 (sealed), won by Michael Van Breemen (The Ninja Scot) playing Klingon.
2011, not played.
2010, not played.
2009, not played.
2008, not played.

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Next Week

Week 4 of the Road to Worlds sees this weekend's eight Regionals reviewed, an interview with a winning player, the usual explosion of statistics, and a preview of next weekend's five Regionals. Hopefully, I'll be victorious in Denmark and get to interview myself for a truly weird conversation.

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