#176919
Well, I had so much fun last year in pouring over the regionals dilemma popularity data, I figured I'd do it again this year. Affiliations and draw decks get a lot of attention as they rise and fall, but it's fun to see what the dilemmas associated with them are up to too.
The Sample
I used the top 3 (posted, plus one sent to me by email) dilemma piles of every regional with 8 or more people, the top 2 of every regional with 6-7 people, and the winning dilemma pile of every regional that had 5 or fewer attendees, for a total of 66 dilemma piles reviewed. I tallied both the total number of appearances of each dilemma in those piles, as well as the number of decks each dilemma appeared in.
The Data
The following charts express the percentage of those 66 piles that included one of the listed dilemmas at least once. That way, having three All-Consuming Evils in every consume pile won't make it look like such piles are more common than they really are.
The next chart compares this year's data to last year's.
This year I also tracked average dilemma pile size and average proportion of space/planet/dual dilemmas. That way, with the data above and the average number of copies per pile, I could generate the average winning dilemma pile.
Based on an average dilemma pile size of 37 cards, with a breakdown of 6 space, 7 planet, and 24 dual, and using the average copies per pile data I collected, this is what the average winning pile looks like:
Average Winning Dilemma Pile
Of course, to run that average pile, you'd need to have plenty of events and 2-3 40pt missions, so I put together a pile without such restrictions:
Average Winning Dilemma Pile (No Restrictions)
Analysis (In this section, dilemmas names will be followed by their rank this year and, in parentheses, their rank last year)
Legacy and Archer fear has diminished significantly from last year. Several common skill dilemmas, particularly An Issue of Trust 1(3), Healing Hand 11(6), Occupational Hazards 25(7), and Picking Up the Pieces 10(6) have dropped in popularity, while non-skill random stoppers like Agonizing Encounter 9(18), The Captain's "Guest" 15(24), Chula: The Chandra 16(23), Old Differences 30(44), and Miner Revolt 6(9) are on the rise. There's good reason too: Legacy, while still not common at #60 last year, was completely absent from winning piles this year. Be prepared for lots of random selection stops.
While Unfair Comparison 39(32) is not any more common among winners this year, its presence is felt in rankings. While the meteoric rises of Well Prepared Defenses 21(66) and the 6-cost dilemmas can also be attributed to the shift to two mission wins and 40 pt missions, other high cost dilemmas have also experienced a bump. In Development 6(12) is pulling away as the weenie stopper of choice over Coolant Leak 18(11) (which also has implications with regards to requiring skills), and other high cost dilemmas that haven't been seeing play are beginning to show up (like Paranoid Escape 17(--)).
Several new dilemmas have hopped right up the charts. New dilemmas to keep an eye on include The Oracle's Punishment, Insurrection, Greater Needs, and Rush Job. The Oracle's Punishment's ability to stop two choice personnel may have contributed to the slight dips for both Secret Identity 4(3) and The Caretaker's "Guests" 22(19), but showed up in plenty of piles with one or the other. Greater Needs competes effectively with Rogue Borg Ambush 1(1) even though it has easier requirements by having a much more punishing effect.
Though there are some new faces around, the tops of the space and planet dilemma lists have not changed very much. Part of the issue is that, in your average pile, there are only 6 space slots and 7 planet slots; the competition is fierce with all the planet and space dilemmas out there and people are understandably hesitant to spend one of those few slots on an unknown quantity. While the dual list hasn't exactly been turbulent, compared to the s/p lists it is notably less stable, because there's more room to work with.
Kill piles are still lurking and effective, but they won't always have Tragic Turn 49(31). Variants of the Van Breemen Bold Plan 41(82) consume pile are around and can do well, even though TT is sometimes removed. Be prepared for the usual suspects like The Clown: Guillotine 40(43).
There are plenty of events in your average winning deck still. Whisper in the Dark 3(2), Tsiolkovsky Infection 4(4) and their ilk are about equally common in winning decks as they were last year; perhaps it is time to pull out those Zero Hours 18(37) since, as I mentioned last year, Quinn/Desperate Sacrifice does not have as much of an effect on Unfair Comparison piles as it does on Overwhelmed 99(47) piles. Plus, anyone still using Restore Errant Moon will help you out by downloading it.
Shoutouts
In addition to the regular data, I also tracked who had the most unique dilemmas in their pile. While two players were tied for second at four dilemmas each (Matthew Hayes with Information Extraction, DNA Analysis, Time for Action, and Destined Journey and Joseph Bazemore with Duty Schedule, Arrogance, Trabe Grenade, and Mr. Tricorder), Mike Camp Sr. blew the competition away. His winning deck from the 4/28 Mint Hill, North Carolina Sector 001 Regional had a whopping 19 unique dilemmas in it: A Pattern of Lies, Aftereffects, Aggressive Behavior, Casualties of War, Chulas Move Along Home and Pick One to Save Two, Compassionate Interference, Crippling Attack, Head to Head, Heart to Heart, In Training, Joint Operation Drills, Kelvan Show of Force, Nanite Attack, On Foreign Ground, Profitable Venture, Subterranean Barrier, Symbalene Blood Burn, and Temporal Misalignment. Good work, I couldn't believe how many new lines you made me enter in the spreadsheet. Here are the final standings for the IDIC awards:
The Sample
I used the top 3 (posted, plus one sent to me by email) dilemma piles of every regional with 8 or more people, the top 2 of every regional with 6-7 people, and the winning dilemma pile of every regional that had 5 or fewer attendees, for a total of 66 dilemma piles reviewed. I tallied both the total number of appearances of each dilemma in those piles, as well as the number of decks each dilemma appeared in.
The Data
The following charts express the percentage of those 66 piles that included one of the listed dilemmas at least once. That way, having three All-Consuming Evils in every consume pile won't make it look like such piles are more common than they really are.
The next chart compares this year's data to last year's.
This year I also tracked average dilemma pile size and average proportion of space/planet/dual dilemmas. That way, with the data above and the average number of copies per pile, I could generate the average winning dilemma pile.
Based on an average dilemma pile size of 37 cards, with a breakdown of 6 space, 7 planet, and 24 dual, and using the average copies per pile data I collected, this is what the average winning pile looks like:
Average Winning Dilemma Pile
Of course, to run that average pile, you'd need to have plenty of events and 2-3 40pt missions, so I put together a pile without such restrictions:
Average Winning Dilemma Pile (No Restrictions)
Analysis (In this section, dilemmas names will be followed by their rank this year and, in parentheses, their rank last year)
Legacy and Archer fear has diminished significantly from last year. Several common skill dilemmas, particularly An Issue of Trust 1(3), Healing Hand 11(6), Occupational Hazards 25(7), and Picking Up the Pieces 10(6) have dropped in popularity, while non-skill random stoppers like Agonizing Encounter 9(18), The Captain's "Guest" 15(24), Chula: The Chandra 16(23), Old Differences 30(44), and Miner Revolt 6(9) are on the rise. There's good reason too: Legacy, while still not common at #60 last year, was completely absent from winning piles this year. Be prepared for lots of random selection stops.
While Unfair Comparison 39(32) is not any more common among winners this year, its presence is felt in rankings. While the meteoric rises of Well Prepared Defenses 21(66) and the 6-cost dilemmas can also be attributed to the shift to two mission wins and 40 pt missions, other high cost dilemmas have also experienced a bump. In Development 6(12) is pulling away as the weenie stopper of choice over Coolant Leak 18(11) (which also has implications with regards to requiring skills), and other high cost dilemmas that haven't been seeing play are beginning to show up (like Paranoid Escape 17(--)).
Several new dilemmas have hopped right up the charts. New dilemmas to keep an eye on include The Oracle's Punishment, Insurrection, Greater Needs, and Rush Job. The Oracle's Punishment's ability to stop two choice personnel may have contributed to the slight dips for both Secret Identity 4(3) and The Caretaker's "Guests" 22(19), but showed up in plenty of piles with one or the other. Greater Needs competes effectively with Rogue Borg Ambush 1(1) even though it has easier requirements by having a much more punishing effect.
Though there are some new faces around, the tops of the space and planet dilemma lists have not changed very much. Part of the issue is that, in your average pile, there are only 6 space slots and 7 planet slots; the competition is fierce with all the planet and space dilemmas out there and people are understandably hesitant to spend one of those few slots on an unknown quantity. While the dual list hasn't exactly been turbulent, compared to the s/p lists it is notably less stable, because there's more room to work with.
Kill piles are still lurking and effective, but they won't always have Tragic Turn 49(31). Variants of the Van Breemen Bold Plan 41(82) consume pile are around and can do well, even though TT is sometimes removed. Be prepared for the usual suspects like The Clown: Guillotine 40(43).
There are plenty of events in your average winning deck still. Whisper in the Dark 3(2), Tsiolkovsky Infection 4(4) and their ilk are about equally common in winning decks as they were last year; perhaps it is time to pull out those Zero Hours 18(37) since, as I mentioned last year, Quinn/Desperate Sacrifice does not have as much of an effect on Unfair Comparison piles as it does on Overwhelmed 99(47) piles. Plus, anyone still using Restore Errant Moon will help you out by downloading it.
Shoutouts
In addition to the regular data, I also tracked who had the most unique dilemmas in their pile. While two players were tied for second at four dilemmas each (Matthew Hayes with Information Extraction, DNA Analysis, Time for Action, and Destined Journey and Joseph Bazemore with Duty Schedule, Arrogance, Trabe Grenade, and Mr. Tricorder), Mike Camp Sr. blew the competition away. His winning deck from the 4/28 Mint Hill, North Carolina Sector 001 Regional had a whopping 19 unique dilemmas in it: A Pattern of Lies, Aftereffects, Aggressive Behavior, Casualties of War, Chulas Move Along Home and Pick One to Save Two, Compassionate Interference, Crippling Attack, Head to Head, Heart to Heart, In Training, Joint Operation Drills, Kelvan Show of Force, Nanite Attack, On Foreign Ground, Profitable Venture, Subterranean Barrier, Symbalene Blood Burn, and Temporal Misalignment. Good work, I couldn't believe how many new lines you made me enter in the spreadsheet. Here are the final standings for the IDIC awards:
Last edited by edgeofhearing on Tue Mar 31, 2015 3:45 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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