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The Road to Worlds 2013, Week 8 (part II)

by James Hoskin, Director of Organized Play

23rd May 2013


The Road to Worlds 2013, Week 8 began in part I.


Deck Statistics

There were 32 players at five First Edition tournaments this week, taking the total players at First Edition Regional Championships to 82 - an average of 6.8 players per tournament. Even though we are over half-way through Regional season, we have yet to see anyone play Kazon, Klingon/Cardassian Alliance, Starfleet or Terran Empire.

The best performing First Edition affiliations to date are [Fer] Ferengi, averaging 12.8 victory points per tournament; followed by [Baj] Bajoran, averaging 11.7 victory points; and then Vidiian, averaging 11.4 victory points. The worst performing affiliations to date are [Bor] Borg and [Fed] Federation, both averaging 8.4 victory points per tournament; and then Hirogen, averaging 8.0 victory points.

The most popular First Edition affiliations are currently:
1.[Fed] FederationUsed by 17 (22%) players3 Regional wins
2.[Kli] KlingonUsed by 9 (12%) players3 Regional wins
3.[Rom] RomulanUsed by 8 (10%) players
3.Unknown?Used by 8 (10%) players
5.[Fer] FerengiUsed by 7 (9%) players3 Regional wins
5.VidiianUsed by 7 (9%) players1 Regional win
7.[Bor] BorgUsed by 6 (8%) players
8.[NA] Non-AlignedUsed by 5 (6%) players
9.HirogenUsed by 4 (5%) players
9.Dual AffiliationsUsed by 4 (5%) players
11.[Baj] BajoranUsed by 1 (1%) player1 Regional win
11.[Car] CardassianUsed by 1 (1%) player1 Regional win
11.[Dom] DominionUsed by 1 (1%) player

There were 13 players at two Second Edition tournaments this week, taking the total players at Second Edition Regional Championships to 158 - an average of 8.8 players per tournament.

The best performing Second Edition affiliations to date are [Maq] Maquis, averaging 14.3 victory points per tournament; followed by Relativity, averaging 13.5 victory points; and then [Fer] Ferengi, averaging 13.0 victory points. The worst performing affiliations are [Voy] Voyager / Equinox, averaging 9.5 victory points per tournament; followed by [DS9] Deep Space 9, averaging 9.3 victory points; and then [NA] Non-Aligned, averaging 9.0 victory points

The most popular Second Edition affiliations are currently:
1.[TNG] Next GenerationUsed by 23 (15%) players1 Regional win
2.[Kli] KlingonUsed by 17 (11%) players5 Regional wins
3.[SF] StarfleetUsed by 16 (10%) players2 Regional wins
4.[Bor] BorgUsed by 14 (9%) players2 Regional wins
5.[TOS] Original SeriesUsed by 12 (8%) players
6.[Dom] DominionUsed by 11 (7%) players2 Regional wins
7.RelativityUsed by 10 (6%) players
8.[Car] CardassianUsed by 7 (4%) players1 Regional win
8.[DS9] Deep Space 9Used by 7 (4%) players2 Regional wins
10.Earth Space 9Used by 6 (4%) players
10.[Maq] MaquisUsed by 6 (4%) players2 Regional wins
10.[TN] Terok NorUsed by 6 (4%) players
10.[Voy] Voyager/EquinoxUsed by 6 (4%) players
10.Unknown?Used by 6 (4%) players
15.[Baj] BajoranUsed by 4 (3%) players
16.[Rom] RomulanUsed by 3 (2%) players
17.[Fer] FerengiUsed by 2 (1%) players1 Regional win
18.[NA] Non-AlignedUsed by 1 (1%) player
18.Dual AffiliationsUsed by 1 (1%) player

There were four players at one Tribbles tournament this week, bringing the total players at Tribbles Regional Championships to 85 - an average of 7.7 players per tournament. Excluding preliminary heats, a total of 25,948,796 Tribbles have been scored to date, an average of 305,280 Tribbles per player.

The most popular Tribbles powers in each deck are:
1.GoUsed by 18 (21%) players4 Regional wins
2.Unknown?Used by 16 (19%) players4 Regional wins
3.IDICUsed by 8 (9%) players
4.BattleUsed by 5 (6%) players
4.CloneUsed by 5 (6%) players
4.DiscardUsed by 5 (6%) players1 Regional win
7.PoisonUsed by 4 (5%) players
7.UtilizeUsed by 4 (5%) players
9.RescueUsed by 3 (4%) players
10.BonusUsed by 2 (2%) players
11.FreezeUsed by 1 (1%) player
11.RecycleUsed by 1 (1%) player
11.ReplayUsed by 1 (1%) player
11.ReplicateUsed by 1 (1%) player
11.SkipUsed by 1 (1%) player
11.Assimilate/Poison/ScoreUsed by 1 (1%) player
11.Battle/GoUsed by 1 (1%) player
11.Battle/ScoreUsed by 1 (1%) player
11.Bonus/Reverse/SkipUsed by 1 (1%) player
11.Clone/GoUsed by 1 (1%) player1 Regional win
11.Clone/ReplayUsed by 1 (1%) player
11.Go/MasakaUsed by 1 (1%) player
11.Go/ScanUsed by 1 (1%) player
11.Poison/RescueUsed by 1 (1%) player1 Regional win
11.Reverse/SkipUsed by 1 (1%) player

Predictions

JamesKrisInterviewees
14/43 (32.6%)14/43 (32.6%)17/43 (39.5%)
2013 Prediction Accuracy

All three predictors managed to get at least 50% of our predictions correct last week, helped by us picking the same player to win in four of the eight sanctioned tournaments. While last week's interviewee, Johnny Holeva (jjh), jumped into second spot tied in the accuracy table; Kris and I can take comfort from the knowledge that our overall prediction accuracy jumped 3.2% and 6.1% respectively this week. This feels like a move in the right direction. Something we'll have to reproduce to keep up with our performances from last year. This week's interviewee, Chris Volk (volkerii), declined to make all ten predictions this week. Special thanks to the Continuing Committee's Chief Programmer, Chris Lobban (Maelwys), for stepping in to fill the void at the last minute.

Past Interviewee Prediction Accuracy
Week 6Matthew Frid (bandana8472)1/1 (100%)
Week 2Nat Kirton (Nate Jeezy)3/6 (50.0%)
Week 7Johnny Holeva (jjh)4/9 (44.4%)
Week 1Sean O'Reilly (Jono)4/9 (44.4%)
Week 3Matt Kirk (CaptMDKirk)3/8 (37.5%)
Week 5Johannes Klarhauser (Kaiser)1/4 (25.0%)
Week 4Soren Ramme Nielsen (s_ramme)1/5 (20.0%)


Week 8 Preview

The complete schedule can be found in the article 2013 Regional Championships Schedule. There are nine Regional tournaments this week:

Saturday 25th MaySunday 26th May
Second Edition (Standard)
Tjark's Place
St.-Josef-Str. 29
56068 Koblenz
Germany
[Discuss] [Pre-register]
Tribbles (Standard)
Tjark's Place
St.-Josef-Str. 29
56068 Koblenz
Germany
[Discuss] [Pre-register]
Second Edition (Standard)
Good Games Burwood
195a Burwood Road, Level 1
Burwood, NSW 2134
Australia
[Discuss] [Pre-register]
First Edition (OTF)
Lakewood Public Library
15425 Detroit Road
Lakewood, OH 44107
United States
[Discuss] [Pre-register]
Second Edition (Standard)
Lakewood Public Library
15425 Detroit Road
Lakewood, OH 44107
United States
[Discuss] [Pre-register]
Second Edition (Standard)
Jagerhaus
1209 S Hill View Road
Sioux Falls, SD 57110
United States
[Discuss] [Pre-register]
Tribbles (Standard)
Jagerhaus
1209 S Hill View Road
Sioux Falls, SD 57110
United States
[Discuss] [Pre-register]
Second Edition (Standard)
Tyler's House
4612 Norwich Drive
Fort Worth, TX 76109
United States
[Discuss] [Pre-register]
Tribbles (Standard)
Tyler's House
4612 Norwich Drive
Fort Worth, TX 76109
United States
[Discuss] [Pre-register]

Tjark's Place (Second Edition): This will be the fourth year this Vandros IV Regional has been held. It has attracted seven or eight players for the past three years, and there are five pre-registered already. Reigning European Continental Champion Thomas Schneider (thsch) is out to defend the title he won last year, but he hasn't won a tournament at all this year. This could be excused by the fact that Thomas appears to be trying affiliations he didn't play at all in 2012, but it is still a cause for concern. Challenging Thomas will be various members of the Ott family: Tjark Ott (tjark), Svenja Ott (Svenja1) and Florian Ott (h3on). Tjark has almost twice the experience of his two children combined, but his recent form hasn't been great - not having won a tournament in almost two years. He has eight second places to his name in that time, but can't quite seem to take that final step to victory. Svenja and Florian both seem to have their favorite affilations: Klingon and Starfleet, respectively; and recent results suggest they are becoming proficient at playing them. Svenja won her last tournament, while Florian has one win and two second places in his last four tournaments. It all comes back to Thomas though. His 65% or better winning record against his potential opponents means he is my pick to win.

Kris: Thomas Schneider to win. Why? Despite running in reverse the first third of the year, The Sensei is a reigning Regional and Continental Champion who also happens to carry a winning record against everyone he's likely to face. If he's not the safe pick in this bunch, I don't know who is!

Chris: Thomas Schneider is the defending champion, and the highest rated player currently pre-registered. However, he's been in a bit of a slump recently, finishing near the bottom in two of his three tournaments so far this year, and losing more than 60 ratings points over that time. So this might be a chance for one of the Otts to take the title from him... and it looks like Svenja might be making a run for that, as she's been refining an Klingon deck across the last four tournaments and gradually gaining ground with it (finally winning her last tournament). But Thomas has beaten that deck before, and I think he can do it again (especially if he knows that it's coming), so I think that he'll hold on and successfully defend his title here.

Past Second Edition Regional results at Tjark's Place:
2012, won by Thomas Schneider (thsch) playing [Maq] Maquis.
2011 (alternate venue), won by Johannes Klarhauser (Kaiser) playing Earth Space 9.
2010 (alternate venue), won by Marco Puelsch (Galen) playing [Kli] Klingon.
2009, not played.
2008, not played.

Tjark's Place (Tribbles): This will be the second time this Vandros IV Regional has been held, returning after a one year absence. Three of the four players at the last event no longer live in the area and are highly unlikely to attend. That, combined with the lack of experience of the players we know will be at the venue for the Second Edition Regional, makes for some tough predicting. Thomas Schneider (thsch) has the most experience with 14 tournaments under his belt in the past three years. He won five of those tournaments, but recent form shows that he scored a pity Tribble in his last two tournaments. Tjark Ott (tjark) has only played in six tournaments, never having won; while Marco Puelsch (Galen) has one win from the five tournaments he has played in. This lack of experience really means that anyone could win this Regional. To ease my workload in next week's article (I worship at the altar of cut+paste!), I'm going to pick Thomas to win this one too.

Kris: Tjark Ott to win. Why? TNT averages over 210k in Battle Royale's, and is known around Kalamazoo for spreading green around. Say, do you think he'll throw some green our way if he wins, Gorilla? If so, you heard it here first, all hail Tjark the Triumphant!

Chris: The field is wide open here. Looking back at the past year of results, there are four different winners across five different tournaments, with the only person able to repeat being Thomas Schneider. But I think that he's going to use all his energy this year on the Second Edition regional, and have Tribbles stolen from him by ... I'll go with Marco Puelsch just because I feel bad not mentioning his name in the previous prediction.

Past Tribbles Regional results at Tjark's Place:
2012, not played.
2011 (alternate venue), won by Johannes Klarhauser (Kaiser) playing a Rescue deck.
2010, not played.
2009, not played.
2008, not played.

Lakewood Public Library (First Edition): This will be the second year that this Qo'noS Regional has been organized. Four players took part last year, but six have pre-registered so far. Most of those only have between two and seven tournaments experience, as you would expect from a playgroup that only started at the venue a little over 18 months ago. Chances are that one of the two players with experience: tournament director James Booker (Shooter McGavin), and visiting player Sean O'Reilly (Jono); will walk away with this title. James has four wins and three second places from his ten tournaments, while Sean has three wins and three second places from his 16 tournaments. The telling statistic is the win percentages though. James has won 75% of the constructed games he has played, as opposed to Sean's record of 38%. That must mean James will win this one.

Kris: Sean O’Reilly to win. Why? Lemme tell you something, Gorilla, while I've never had the privilege of managing Smiley O'Reilly, the man trained alongside former AWA and T2E World's Heavyweight Champion The Natural back in the 90's and with last year's Regional winner not even on the card this year my big brain says all of that training is gonna come in handy this Saturday. Mark my words, I smell a title change! ...or is that you, Gorilla?

Chris: Well, this was almost an easy call. I was going to write up something about how I couldn't bring myself to pick anybody but The First One, Dave Bowling. And then he just had to go and withdraw from the event... the nerve of him! Looking over the rest of the field... after declining to pick Sean O'Reilly for the Second Edition Regional later in the day, I think I need to pick him to win this one instead. Or possibly, Dave will manage to rearrange his plans again and make an unannounced appearance to surprise everybody and take the title. But barring that, I'll go with Sean.

Past First Edition Regional results at Lakewood Public Library:
2012, won by Bradley David Eier (hoganheelturn) playing [Fed] Federation.
2011, not played.
2010, not played.
2009, not played.
2008, not played.

Lakewood Public Library (Second Edition): The Qo'noS double-header continues with this Second Edition tournament. It is the second year it has been held, with four players participating last year. As with the First Edition Regional earlier in the day, more players have pre-registered this year - six so far. The highest rated of those is Jared Hoffman (Mugato), who has a 75% winning record and already has one Regional win to his name this year. Joel Skon (RedAlucard) will be playing in his third Regional of the year, and hoping to perform better than he did in the previous two. Tournament director James Booker (Shooter McGavin) will be looking to defend the title he won last year, even though his most recent performances haven't been stellar. Jared is my pick to win.

Kris: Jared Hoffman to win. Why? The original black and white express is set to invade southern Lancaster this week as Hollywood Hoffman and his n.W.o. acolyte Syxx head north for a handicap match against Booker T and a trio of indy circuit show stoppers. With one Regional title already in the bag and the creative department in his back pocket, I gotta believe Hollywood will find a way to lie, cheat, or steal his way to victory to keep the gold in the "Family," Gorilla.

Chris: This is a tough one to call. I'm going to say that it'll come down to either Jared Hoffman or Sean O'Reilly. Jared has always been a very solid player, but doesn't have too many tournament wins recently (the regional he won last month was the first tournament he's taken first place in since the 2011 United States Nationals). Sean, likewise, has been around forever and has a lot of experience playing, but not too many big wins. Add to that the fact that these two apparently have never played each other (at least, not within the last five and half years) and it looks to be an interesting matchup. Although I think that Sean's experience in Florida will pay off and he'll do well here, I think that ultimately Jared will manage to take the win.

Past Second Edition Regional results at Lakewood Public Library:
2012, won by James Booker (Shooter McGavin) playing Earth Space 9.
2011, not played.
2010, not played.
2009, not played.
2008, not played.

Jagerhaus (Second Edition): This Andoria Regional has attracted between four and ten players in the previous four years it has been run. With no players pre-registered so far; host, tournament director, 2008 World Champion and three-time past winner of this Regional Kevin Jaeger (Hoss-Drone) looks a good bet for this title. He has won the last three tournaments he has entered, and has a 73% winning record when it comes to constructed games. While some of Kevin's usual opponents have managed to beat him in the past, those that have done so have only done it once. The surprise package will be Chris Volk (volkerii). This week's interviewee hinted he would be making an appearance at this Regional. He certainly has the form, with six wins from twelve tournaments this year, but he doesn't appear to have played many of his potential opponents before. The unknown factor can work both ways, but I can't look past Kevin to win this one.

Kris: Kevin Jaeger to win. Why? Big Kev's a former T2E World's Heavyweight Champion, a current New York Times best-selling author, and a class act performer I've jobbed to more times than I can count. Provided there are no missteps on his front lawn, I'll stake my reputation as a broadcast journalist on the next batch of dirt sheets having his name printed at the top.

Chris: With absolutely nobody preregistered for this tournament, they're just going out of their way to make this a hard one to pick, aren't they? As the defending champion, and the person who has won every Second Edition tournament at this location, and the tournament director, and the home-owner, and thus the only person I can really be sure is going to show up... I'm going to have to go with the obvious answer here, and pick Kevin Jaeger.

Past Second Edition Regional results at Jagerhaus:
2012, won by Kevin Jaeger (Hoss-Drone) playing [Kli] [TNG] [DS9] Klingon / Next Generation / Deep Space 9.
2011 (alternate venue), won by Kevin Jaeger (Hoss-Drone) playing [Bor] Borg.
2010 (alternate venue), won by Mike Harrington (Ajnaran) playing [DS9] [Fer] Deep Space 9 / Ferengi.
2009 (alternate venue), won by Kevin Jaeger (Hoss-Drone) playing [Kli] Klingon.
2008, not played.

Jagerhaus (Tribbles): The addition of an inaugural Tribbles Regional in Sioux Falls, South Dakota gives me a reason to use my favorite phrase: double-header. As with the Second Edition Regional earlier in the day, no players have pre-registered so far, but eleven tournaments in the last year at the venue point to a healthy interest in Tribbles breeding. Host Kevin Jaeger (Hoss-Drone) leads the pack with four of those eleven wins, followed by Shawn Colson (rengar) with three wins and Nate Lindgren (Methos) with two wins. Despite all of these winners, my pick is going to be Preston Holida (holida2000). He has averaged 442,389 Tribbles across the eight tournaments he has played, almost 90,000 more per tournament than his nearest rival. I hope that scoring prowess will give Preston the edge on Saturday.

Kris: Shawn Colson to win. Why? The Heartbreak Kid and Big Kev are two of the founding members of The Kliq, but as you know, Gorilla, when it comes to Battle Royale's a friend in need is a pest. Considering he picked up the win in an April house show and was the last man eliminated at Fargo Fury last June, this time I expect Mr. Colson to Super Kick his way to the Promised Land.

Chris: Still no pre-registrations, so for much the same reasoning (though he hasn't quite won every Tribbles event here, he's certainly won the bulk of them) I'll have to pick Kevin again.

There are no past Tribbles Regional results at Jagerhaus.

Tyler's House (Second Edition): The fourth double-header of the day takes place in The Void Region. This will mark the second year that this Regional has been held, with seven players participating last year. Only three have pre-registered so far, but recent tournaments at the venue have attracted six or seven players so we can probably expect the same again. Last year, everyone overlooked Jim Sharp (jss_hobbie) when predicting the winner; and, from the title of his deck list - "How'd that prediction go?" - and the tone of his tournament report; I don't think he was very pleased about that. Unlike my fellow predictors, that's not a mistake I'm looking to repeat this year. Jim hasn't had the best form recently, with bottom-half finishes in his last five tournaments. Four of them were sealed events though. Jim's constructed form is much better, as his 79% game winning record shows. When it comes to Jim's competitors, two jump out. Host Tyler Fultz (DJstormtrooper) is currently ranked #19 in the world, with 27 wins from his 102 tournaments, and has a 73% winning record from the 379 constructed games he has played. Former New Jersey player John Corbett (KillerB) is ranked #24 in the world, with 40 wins from 149 tournaments, and has a 66% winning record from his 522 constructed games. Neither compare to Jim though, and he is my pick to win.

Kris: Tyler Fultz to win. Why? The Truth is the North Star State's biggest draw, claiming Regional gold twice and Continental gold once on foreign soil in the past few years. He's also wearing the zebra stripes for this match, and as the only Superstar with the ability to change the rules to serve his own interests, I'd say the odds are stacked heavily in that man's favor.

Chris: This should be an interesting event to watch. There are two main "names" at the event, John Corbett and Tyler Fultz. Both have a lot of titles (and near titles) to their names, both are ranked in the top 25 in the world, and both are obviously going to bring their A games. The problem with comparing these two is that that since John moved out to Texas last month the two have met each other twice, and each has gotten one win out of it... but both times were in sealed deck tournaments. The only times they've ever played before that was twice at Worlds 2010, in Germany. And in that case, Tyler took both games. So, I expect it to be a tense game between these two for the title, but I think that Tyler will continue to come out on top in this pairing.

Past Second Edition Regional results at Tyler's House:
2012, won by Jim Sharp (jss_hobbie) playing [Rom] Romulan.
2011, not played.
2010, not played.
2009, not played.
2008, not played.

Tyler's House (Tribbles): The second half of The Void Region double header concludes with a Tribbles Regional. This will be the second year that it has been run, with six participants last year. With only five Tribbles players in the Region, it shouldn't be too hard to pick a winner. Kathleen Fultz (KathleenF) has the best record with two wins from seven tournaments, but she hasn't played in almost two years and may be a little rusty. Tyler Fultz (DJstormtrooper) has the most experience, having played in 21 tournaments. He's only won three of those though, and an average score per tournament of 273,959 is a little on the low side. It's also worth mentioning that Tyler has never scored more than 565,000 in a tournament before. Jonathan Engel (Triumph) has twice scored over 900,000 Tribbles, but one win from 15 tournaments, and an average score per tournament of 262,721, doesn't inspire confidence either. My pick (again) is Jim Sharp (jss_hobbie). He has only played in three tournaments, and has never won. However, he has averaged 641,861 Tribbles in each of those three tournaments. With a record like that, I can't look past him to take the title.

Kris: Jonathan Engel to win. Why? The Texas Tornado is a devout student of the game who has been on the rise lately down in WCCW. And while he's never tasted Regional Gold, my sources tell me that all the homework he's done recently will ultimately lead him on to triumph or I’m a weasel.

Chris: Tribbles is always a bit of a toss-up. One of the great things about it is that anybody can win any game on any given day. But in this case, in the end, I think Triumph will ... ya know ... win.

Past Tribbles Regional results at Tyler's House:
2012, won by Joshua Sheets (prylardurden) playing a Battle/Tally deck.
2011, not played.
2010, not played.
2009, not played.
2008, not played.

Good Games Burwood: This will be the sixth year that this Kazon Collective Regional will be held. The last four have all seen double-digit attendances, and there are six players pre-registered so far. Steve Hartmann (chompers) is the highest rated pre-registered player, and has five wins (using four different affiliations) from the eleven tournaments he has played this year. He'll be challenged by Craig Giblett (Ensign Gibbers), who won the Brisbane Regional in April. That was Craig's only tournament win this year though. The potential thorn in these players sides is Shane Brierley (Shanebrier). He too only has one tournament win this year, but it is his win percentage that stands out. Shane beats Steve 68% and Craig 78% of the time they play. Even though he hasn't pre-registered, I think Shane will reclaim his title.

Kris: Steve Hartmann to win. Why? Ignoring a double count out two months ago, The King of Harts has won seven straight contests and is a former #1 contender for the Regional, Continental, and World's Heavyweight championship titles. Provided he's up to the challenge of stepping outside of the Canberra Colossus' shadow, I gotta believe he'll prove once and for all that he is the best there is, the best there was, and the best their ever will be.

Chris: Looking at the last ten Constructed Second Edition tournaments at this location gives us six different names, a sign of a very balanced field. Steve Hartmann has the advantage with four of those ten wins himself, but with five other people each taking at least one win over that time, it goes to show that anything can happen, and just about anybody has a chance to win this one. And I think that's exactly what will continue to happen. I'm going to call this one for Shane Brierley, who is going to show up unannounced and take the field. He has a 70% win ratio versus just about everybody that's expected to show up, so I think he can take it (if he shows, granted).

Past Second Edition Regional results at Good Games Burwood:
2012, won by Shane Brierley (Shanebrier) playing [Voy] Voyager.
2011, won by Chris Clarke (ZodoJats) playing [Bor] Borg.
2010, won by Shane Brierley (Shanebrier) playing [Voy] Voyager.
2009, won by Lee Clarke (LCJK) playing [Kli] Klingon.
2008, won by Kieren Otton (Honest) playing [TNG] Next Generation.


Next Week

Week 9 of the Road to Worlds sees this weekend's nine Regionals reviewed, an interview with a winning player, more statistics, and a preview of next weekend's eight Regionals.

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