The Road to Worlds 2013, Week 10 (part II)

by James Hoskin, Director of Organized Play

6th June 2013

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The Road to Worlds 2013, Week 10 began in part I.

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Deck Statistics

There were 25 players at four First Edition tournaments this week, taking the total players at First Edition Regional Championships to 114 - an average of 6.7 players per tournament. With Klingon/Cardassian Alliance finally being played this week, we're left with just Kazon and Terran Empire not being played at a Regional this year. Borg and Romulan also picked up their first wins in this Regional season.

The best performing First Edition affiliations to date are Vidiian, averaging 11.6 victory points per tournament; followed by Bajoran, averaging 11.2 victory points; and then Ferengi, averaging 9.8 victory points. The worst performing affiliations to date are Hirogen, averaging 7.4 victory points per tournament; followed by Klingon/Cardassian Alliance, averaging 7.0 victory points; and then Starfleet, averaging 6.0 victory points.

The most popular First Edition affiliations are currently:
1.	Federation	Used by 23 (20%) players	4 Regional wins
2.	Klingon	Used by 14 (12%) players	3 Regional wins
3.	Ferengi	Used by 13 (11%) players	4 Regional wins
3.	Romulan	Used by 13 (11%) players	1 Regional win
5.	Borg	Used by 10 (9%) players	1 Regional win
6.	Vidiian	Used by 9 (8%) players	1 Regional win
7.	Hirogen	Used by 7 (6%) players
8.	Dual Affiliations	Used by 6 (5%) players
9.	Non-Aligned	Used by 5 (4%) players
9.	Unknown?	Used by 5 (4%) players
11.	Cardassian	Used by 4 (4%) players	1 Regional win
12.	Bajoran	Used by 3 (3%) players	2 Regional wins
13.	Dominion	Used by 1 (1%) player
13.	Klingon/Cardassian Alliance	Used by 1 (1%) player

There were 13 players at one Second Edition tournament this week, taking the total players at Second Edition Regional Championships to 207 - an average of 8.6 players per tournament.

The best performing Second Edition affiliations to date are Maquis, averaging 14.3 victory points per tournament; followed by Relativity, averaging 12.3 victory points; and then Klingon, averaging 12.0 victory points. The worst performing affiliations are Voyager/Equinox, averaging 9.5 victory points per tournament; followed by Ferengi, averaging 9.4 victory points; and then Non-Aligned, averaging 8.5 victory points.

The most popular Second Edition affiliations are currently:
1.	Next Generation	Used by 29 (14%) players	1 Regional win
2.	Klingon	Used by 24 (12%) players	6 Regional wins
3.	Starfleet	Used by 19 (9%) players	3 Regional wins
4.	Borg	Used by 17 (8%) players	3 Regional wins
5.	Dominion	Used by 14 (7%) players	3 Regional wins
5.	Relativity	Used by 14 (7%) players
5.	Original Series	Used by 14 (7%) players
8.	Cardassian	Used by 11 (5%) players	1 Regional win
9.	Voyager/Equinox	Used by 10 (5%) players
10.	Deep Space 9	Used by 8 (4%) players	2 Regional wins
10.	Earth Space 9	Used by 8 (4%) players	1 Regional win
12.	Bajoran	Used by 6 (3%) players	1 Regional win
12.	Maquis	Used by 6 (3%) players	2 Regional wins
12.	Terok Nor	Used by 6 (3%) players
15.	Romulan	Used by 5 (2%) players
15.	Dual Affiliations	Used by 5 (2%) players
17.	Ferengi	Used by 4 (2%) players	1 Regional win
17.	Unknown?	Used by 4 (2%) players
19.	Non-Aligned	Used by 3 (1%) players

There were 16 players at two Tribbles tournaments this week, bringing the total players at Tribbles Regional Championships to 122 - an average of 7.2 players per tournament. Excluding preliminary heats, a total of 38,062,238 Tribbles have been scored to date, an average of 311,986 Tribbles per player. Thank you to all of this week's players and tournament directors for entering their deck lists. This was only the second week where all deck lists have been entered. We are still missing 30 Tribbles deck lists though. Tournament organizers were warned of the Continuing Committee's requirement of 100% deck lists last year, and again this year. Next year, we will be restricting Regionals to tournament organizers who can follow the rules.

The most popular Tribbles powers in each deck are:
1.	Unknown?	Used by 30 (25%) players	4 Regional wins
2.	Go	Used by 24 (20%) players	5 Regional wins
3.	IDIC	Used by 9 (7%) players
4.	Clone	Used by 7 (6%) players
5.	Poison	Used by 6 (5%) players	1 Regional win
6.	Battle	Used by 5 (4%) players
6.	Discard	Used by 5 (4%) players	1 Regional win
6.	Utilize	Used by 5 (4%) players
9.	Bonus	Used by 4 (3%) players	1 Regional win
10.	Rescue	Used by 3 (3%) players
11.	Replay	Used by 2 (2%) players
11.	Battle/Score	Used by 2 (2%) players
11.	Assimilate/Poison/Score	Used by 2 (2%) players
14.	Copy	Used by 1 (1%) player
14.	Freeze	Used by 1 (1%) player
14.	Recycle	Used by 1 (1%) player
14.	Replicate	Used by 1 (1%) player
14.	Scan	Used by 1 (1%) player	1 Regional win
14.	Skip	Used by 1 (1%) player
14.	Toxin	Used by 1 (1%) player	1 Regional win
14.	BaH!/Qapla'	Used by 1 (1%) player
14.	Battle/Go	Used by 1 (1%) player
14.	Bonus/Reverse/Skip	Used by 1 (1%) player
14.	Clone/Go	Used by 1 (1%) player	1 Regional win
14.	Clone/Replay	Used by 1 (1%) player
14.	Discard/Rescue	Used by 1 (1%) player
14.	Go/Masaka	Used by 1 (1%) player
14.	Go/Scan	Used by 1 (1%) player
14.	Poison/Rescue	Used by 1 (1%) player	1 Regional win
14.	Reverse/Skip	Used by 1 (1%) player
14.	Scan/Utilize	Used by 1 (1%) player

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Predictions

James	Kris	Interviewees
19/59 (32.2%)	19/59 (32.2%)	21/59 (35.6%)

2013 Prediction Accuracy

Before getting into last week's predictions, the delayed results from two Regionals were submitted this week, and the leaderboard has been updated to reflect that. Firstly, the First Edition Deep Space Station K-7 Regional in Perth, Australia from Week 5 sees Johannes Klarhauser climb from the bottom of the table after he correctly predicted the winner. Secondly, the Tribbles Risa Regional in California, United States from Week 7 sees Johnny Holeva drop from third place outright to third place tied after he did not predict the winner. Reviews of both of these tournaments have been added to their respective articles.

Last week's predictions weren't great, with only five correct out of 21 made. Kris got two correct, while I only managed one, so he has caught me back up. The interviewees still hold the lead by two though, as Steve Hartmann (chompers) was able to match our performance and get two correct himself. With tournaments running out, this week's interviewee, Jon Carter (pfti), must be feeling the pressure. Or should that be Kris and I who are feeling the pressure?

Past Interviewee Prediction Accuracy
Week 6	Matthew Frid (bandana8472)	1/1 (100%)
Week 2	Nat Kirton (Nate Jeezy)	3/6 (50.0%)
Week 7	Johnny Holeva (jjh)	4/9 (44.4%)
Week 1	Sean O'Reilly (Jono)	4/9 (44.4%)
Week 3	Matt Kirk (CaptMDKirk)	3/8 (37.5%)
Week 9	Steve Hartmann (chompers)	2/7 (28.6%)
Week 5	Johannes Klarhauser (Kaiser)	1/4 (25.0%)
Week 8	Chris Lobban (Maelwys)	2/9 (22.2%)
Week 4	Soren Ramme Nielsen (s_ramme)	1/5 (20.0%)

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Week 10 Preview

The complete schedule can be found in the article 2013 Regional Championships Schedule. There are six Regional tournaments this week:

Saturday 8th June		Sunday 9th June
First Edition (Block OTF) Dragon's Lair Kungsholmstorg 8 112 21 Stockholm Sweden [Pre-register]	Tribbles (Standard) Dragon's Lair Kungsholmstorg 8 112 21 Stockholm Sweden [Pre-register]	Second Edition (Standard) Good Games St James 3/1083 Albany Highway St James, WA 6102 Australia [Pre-register]	Tribbles (Standard) Good Games St James 3/1083 Albany Highway St James, WA 6102 Australia [Pre-register]
		First Edition (OTF) Telak's Place Elsa-Brändström-Str. 5 28359 Bremen Germany [Discuss] [Pre-register]	Second Edition (Standard) Critical Hit Games 3101 Emmorton Road, A4 Abingdon, MD 21009 United States [Discuss] [Pre-register]

Dragon's Lair (First Edition): This is the second year that this Omarion Nebula Regional has been organized. Last year saw six players attend, and four have pre-registered for this Saturday's tournament at the time of writing. Cristoffer Wiker (Smiley) looks to be the favorite to win. His overall rating is 142 points higher than any of his competitors, but that is largely based on sealed events. The ratings are much closer when limited to constructed tournaments and, with that condition, Cristoffer only leads his competitors by 49 ratings points. He still has an 87% winning record in individual constructed games, and has won three of the five tournaments he has entered, so it isn't like his skill is only in sealed tournaments. Challenging Cristoffer will be defending champion Johan Skoglund (scox). He has a much wider playing experience than Cristoffer, I assume as a result of playing online, but his winning record is much lower than Cristoffer's. Let's hope he can put his experience to good use. The third player to watch out for will be Jorn Engstrom (admiral-mogh). He has only played eight tournaments in the Continuing Committee-era, but he finished in second or third place at seven of them. I suspect he only needs a little luck to go his way and he'll be in with a chance of taking his first win. Last year, Cristoffer only took fourth place after building his deck the night before the tournament. I don't think he'll make that mistake again this year. Cristoffer to win.

Kris: Cristoffer Wiker to win. Why? Despite his T2E Legend-esque contract situation, those rare times when the self-professed World's Strongest Man shows up on the pay per view card are memorable, as he often dominates Fatal-4-Ways and typically demands a 5 count pinfall when involved in singles competition. With an 89% win percentage in hand and the zebra stripes on his back, just like a broken drum he'll be hard to beat.

Jon: I gotta go with Johan Skoglund to defend his title and get a first win against Mr. Wilker

Past First Edition Regional results at Dragon's Lair:
2012, won by Johan Skoglund (scox) playing Federation.
2011, not played.
2010, not played.
2009, not played.
2008, not played.

Dragon's Lair (Tribbles): The second half of this Omarion Nebula Regional double header in Stockholm, Sweden is a Tribbles tournament. There were eight players at last year's inaugural event. Only two have pre-registered for this year's tournament so far, but there are 13 Tribble breeders in the country with past experience. Torbjorn Lindquist (Linkan), has the most experience with seven tournaments under his belt. He has won two of those, and has an average score of 762,683 at his last two tournaments. Anna Lindquist (Aneaan) has the next most experience, with four tournaments to her name. She won one of those tournaments, with an impressive score of 1,292,507 Tribbles. With nine of the 13 Swedish Tribble breeders only having played in one tournament, anyone could realistically win this tournament. I'm sticking with Torbjorn though. His experience has to count for something.

Kris: Torbjorn Lindquist to win. Why? I'm sure you don't remember, Gorilla, but I used to manage The Long Riders back in the early 80's in the Mid-Atlantic territories, after they were unmasked and dropped the Super Destroyers moniker. They were a nasty duo back then and I'm sure they've both only gotten nastier with age, so they'll come out on top in this Battle Royale or I'm a weasel.

Jon: Lets stay on the Johan Skoglund express for a back to back title.

Past Tribbles Regional results at Dragon's Lair:
2012, won by Johanna Lax playing a Go deck.
2011, not played.
2010, not played.
2009, not played.
2008, not played.

Good Games St James (Second Edition): This will be the sixth year that this Deep Space Station K-7 Regional has been held. In the last four years there has only ever been four players in attendance: Robert Dawson (TBT), Daniel Hyde (zephrem), Matthyas Kiraly (stoovie) and Matthew Townsend (thac0276). Robert and Matthyas have split the spoils at this Regional fairly consistently, but it is Robert who has the most tournament wins to his name. His 28 wins, is more than his three competitors have combined (16). When it comes to head-to-head, Robert wins almost two-thirds of all games he has against Daniel, Matthyas and Matthew. I've got a nagging feeling that Matthyas will take this one though.

Kris: Robert Dawson to win. Why? The Definition of Definition has already Superplex'd his way to one Regional victory this year, and has an on-again, off-again habit of collecting gold in Lumberjack matches dating back to 2009. But in this business, championships are just like Jell-O, Gorilla... there's always room for more!

Jon: Robert Dawson as he is the only one pre-registered.

Past Second Edition Regional results at Good Games St James:
2012 (alternate venue), won by Matthyas Kiraly (stoovie) playing Borg.
2011 (alternate venue), won by Robert Dawson (TBT) playing Original Series.
2010 (alternate venue), won by Matthyas Kiraly (stoovie) playing Klingon.
2009 (alternate venue), won by Robert Dawson (TBT) playing Voyager.
2008 (alternate venue), won by Robert Dawson (TBT) playing Earth Space 9

Good Games St James (Tribbles): The second half of the double header in the Deep Space Station K-7 Region is (unsurprisingly) likely to feature the same group of four players. Since last year's Regional, Robert Dawson (TBT), Daniel Hyde (zephrem) and Matthyas Kiraly (stoovie) have all won tournaments. Robert has the best average score of 300,880 Tribbles in the 16 tournaments he has played in, while Matthyas is not far behind with an average score of 285,903 Tribbles from nine tournaments. Daniel has played the most in the past year, with 24 tournaments to his name, but he only has an average of 201,997 Tribbles scored. This is offset by the 775,465 Tribbles he scored at one tournament being the highest score of any of his competitors. I think average score trumps high score though, so I'm going with Robert to win.

Kris: Robert Dawson to win. Why? The man's the reigning Regional and Continental Battle Royale Champion, Gorilla! What kind of question is that? Aren't you due back at the zoo soon?

Jon: Robert Dawson as he is the only one pre-registered.

Past Tribbles Regional results at Good Games St James:
2012 (alternate venue), won by Robert Dawson (TBT) playing a Discard/Go deck.
2011 (alternate venue), won by Matthyas Kiraly (stoovie).
2010, not played.
2009, not played.
2008, not played.

Telak's Place: This is the inaugural First Edition Vandros IV Regional to be held in Bremen, Germany. There have only been three tournaments at the venue in the past, with attendances ranging from four to seven players. Sebastian Kirstein (Caretaker's Guest) won each of those tournaments, and must go into Sunday's tournament as the favorite. He'll face competition from 2010 World Champion Andreas Rheinlander (Dukat) (if he plays), host Ulf Benjes (Lieutenant-Telak) and new-to-First-Edition Thomas Vorwerk (Borgified Tribble). Andreas consistently finishes in the top two or three places of tournaments he enters, but hasn't won in his last five events. Ulf will only be playing in his fifth tournament in the Continuing Committee-era. Aside from one second place, he has finished in the bottom half of his other three tournaments. Thomas, better known for founding the World Biermeister Association, is the unknown factor. One thing is for certain though: his deck will contain Quark's Bar and/or Morn. If it doesn't, I'll have to drink as a forfeit. Sebastian to win.

Kris: Sebastian Kirstein to win. Why? The Caretaker is a former Continental Champion and reigning Regional Champion that hasn't "done the honors" for another Superstar since Christmas. He was also in the Main Event over at FCW's huge annual pay per view, Bound for Glory, back in 2010, and where I come from you don't make it to the Main Event without talent or a healthy bank account... or both.

Jon: Sebastian Kirstein is a beast. Look for him to be fine tuning to take on Ken Tufts at Worlds. He may play with giant decks, but they seem to always work.

There are no past First Edition Regional results at Telak's Place.

Critical Hit Games: This will be the sixth year that this Second Edition Romulus Regional has been organized. With the previous venue closing after 33 years in business, it has moved to this new venue. Previous years have seen between five and eleven players participate, and four have pre-registered so far for this year's tournament. Among them, two time past winner of this Regional Neil Timmons (ntimmons). He already has a Regional win to his name this year, and an impressive 80% winning record from the 598 games he has played in the Continuing Committee-era. Phil Schrader (pschrader) has finished in third place at the last two Romulus Regionals, and was runner-up behind Neil at the Regional in April. Two-time defending champion Ben Hosp (bhosp) will also be a threat if he turns up. He has arranged a First Edition side-tournament after the Regional so we can assume he'll be there. He's just playing mind games by not pre-registering. Ben's recent record is erratic with four bottom (or close to bottom) finishes, a second place and two wins in the seven tournaments he has played this year. Not knowing which version of Ben will turn up, I'm going to pick Phil to win this one. He's due.

Kris: Neil Timmons to win. Why? The Big Show is a former DCW World's Heavyweight, Continental, and National Champion, who's also collected Regional gold 10 times over. With a resume and build that dwarfs even the most prominent indy circuit competitors, I gotta believe he'll don both the stripes and the gold once again this weekend.

Jon: Neil Timmons. He is the only one I have ever talked to. He seemed nice enough. Second Edition is weird. That seems good enough.

Past Second Edition Regional results at Critical Hit Games:
2012 (alternate venue), won by Ben Hosp (bhosp) playing Klingon.
2011 (alternate venue), won by Ben Hosp (bhosp) playing Romulan.
2010 (alternate venue), won by Neil Timmons (ntimmons) playing Romulan.
2009 (alternate venue), won by Michael van Breemen (The Ninja Scot) playing Deep Space 9.
2008 (alternate venue), won by Neil Timmons (ntimmons) playing Klingon.

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Next Week

Week 11 of the Road to Worlds sees this weekend's six Regionals reviewed, an interview with a winning player, more statistics, and a preview of next weekend's four Regionals.

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