The Road to Worlds 2012, Week 7 (part II)

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The Road to Worlds 2012, Week 7 (part II)

by James Hoskin, Director of Organized Play

10th May 2012

The Road to Worlds, Week 7 began in part I.

Byes

This week, two players won a Day One, Round One bye into their local First Edition Continental Championships:

Thomas Solway (tksolway), second place (bye handed down) at Tara's Place
Enrico Evink (enrico81), winner at Restaurant "Peking"

And, seven players won a Day One, Round One bye into their local Second Edition Continental Championships:

Thomas Schneider (thsch), winner at Tjark's Place
Matthew Hayes (karonofborg13), winner at Fantasy Flight Games Event Center
Kevin Jaeger (Hoss-Drone), second place at Fantasy Flight Games Event Center
Joel Skon (RedAlucard), winner at The Guardtower
John Kalmen (deathslittlebro), winner at Deathbymonkeys Place
Enrico Evink (enrico81), winner at Restaurant "Peking"
Stefan Slaby (Winner of Borg), winner at Jazzland

And, six players won a 100,000 Tribbles Headstart into their local Tribbles Continental Championships:

Rogue Shindler (SirRogue), winner at Arby's Restaurant
MilesStuntDouble, second place at Arby's Restaurant
Mike Harrington (Ajnaran), winner at Fantasy Flight Games Event Center
Michael Van Breemen (The Ninja Scot), second place at Fantasy Flight Games Event Center
Neal Lawson (Onomy), winner at The Guardtower
Steve Hartmann (chompers), winner at Claytons Hobbies and Collectables

Congratulations to all players, and I wish better luck to anyone who didn't make it this time. These bye winners have been added to the list of current bye winners for the Continental Championships and the World Championships here.

Deck Statistics

There were 12 First Edition players at two tournaments this week, taking the total players at First Edition Regional Championships to 51 - an average of 6.4 players per tournament.

The most popular First Edition affiliations are currently:
1.	Klingon	Used by 11 (22%) players	1 Regional win
2.	Federation	Used by 8 (16%) players	2 Regional wins
2.	Dual Affiliations	Used by 8 (16%) players
4.	Unknown?	Used by 6 (12%) players
5.	Ferengi	Used by 4 (8%) players	1 Regional win
6.	Bajoran	Used by 3 (6%) players	1 Regional win
6.	Hirogen	Used by 3 (6%) players	1 Regional win
8.	Borg	Used by 2 (4%) players
8.	Romulan	Used by 2 (4%) players	1 Regional win
8.	Starfleet	Used by 2 (4%) players	1 Regional win
11.	Cardassian	Used by 1 (2%) player
11.	Triple Affiliations	Used by 1 (2%) player

There were 43 players at six Second Edition tournaments this week, taking the total players at Second Edition Regional Championships to 168 - an average of 8.0 players per tournament. Just three affiliations were not played this week: Dominion, Non-Aligned and Terok Nor. Voyager/Equinox was played at five of the six Regionals this week, winning three of them. Next Generation, Original Series and Voyager/Equinox were played the most this week, at five times each.

The best performing Second Edition affiliations to date are Earth Space 9, averaging 12.8 victory points per tournament; Bajoran, averaging 12.3 victory points; followed by Cardassian and Romulan, both averaging 11.8 victory points. The worst performing affiliations are Dominion, averaging 8.3 victory points per tournament; followed by Non-Aligned, averaging 9.4 victory points; and then Maquis, averaging 9.5 victory points.

The most popular Second Edition affiliations are currently:
1.	Next Generation	Used by 33 (20%) players	4 Regional wins
2.	Klingon	Used by 15 (9%) players	2 Regional wins
3.	Voyager/Equinox	Used by 13 (8%) players	4 Regional wins
4.	Starfleet	Used by 12 (7%) players	2 Regional wins
5.	Cardassian	Used by 11 (7%) players	1 Regional win
5.	Original Series	Used by 11 (7%) players	2 Regional wins
5.	Dual Affiliations	Used by 11 (7%) players
8.	Deep Space 9	Used by 9 (6%) players
8.	Romulan	Used by 9 (6%) players	2 Regional wins
10.	Borg	Used by 7 (4%) players	3 Regional wins
10.	Ferengi	Used by 7 (4%) players
12.	Earth Space 9	Used by 5 (3%) players
12.	Maquis	Used by 5 (3%) players	1 Regional win
14.	Bajoran	Used by 4 (3%) players
15.	Non-Aligned	Used by 3 (2%) players	1 Regional win
16.	Dominion	Used by 2 (1%) players
16.	Unknown?	Used by 2 (1%) players
18.	Terok Nor	Used by 1 (1%) player
18.	Triple Affiliations	Used by 1 (1%) player

There were 35 players at four Tribbles tournaments this week, taking the total players at Tribbles Regional Championships to 114 - an average of 6.7 players per tournament. Excluding preliminary heats, a total of 30,506,643 Tribbles have been scored to date, an average of 267,602 Tribbles per player. 13 decks from April 28/29 have still to be entered, and a further 10 are missing from this past weekend. Once again, players are reminded that they can help their tournament director out by adding their own deck list to the tournament results. Just create your deck in the Tribbles deck builder and save it. Then go to the tournament results and click on the icon next to your name to add your deck. The process is really simple, and should only take five minutes.

The most popular Tribbles powers in each deck are:
1.	Unknown?	Used by 26 (23%) players	4 Regional wins
2.	Go	Used by 20 (18%) players	5 Regional wins
3.	Bonus	Used by 13 (11%) players	2 Regional wins
4.	Rescue	Used by 12 (11%) players
5.	Poison	Used by 10 (9%) players
6.	Clone	Used by 5 (4%) players	1 Regional win
7.	Freeze	Used by 4 (4%) players
8.	Discard	Used by 3 (3%) players	1 Regional win
8.	Tally	Used by 3 (3%) players	1 Regional win
10.	IDIC	Used by 2 (2%) players
10.	Clone/Go/Utilize	Used by 2 (2%) players	1 Regional win
10.	Clone/Go/IDIC/Recycle/Safety	Used by 2 (2%) players
13.	Battle	Used by 1 (1%) player
13.	Draw	Used by 1 (1%) player
13.	Replay	Used by 1 (1%) player
13.	Reverse	Used by 1 (1%) player
13.	Safety	Used by 1 (1%) player
13.	Scan	Used by 1 (1%) player
13.	Time Warp	Used by 1 (1%) player
13.	Copy/Freeze	Used by 1 (1%) player
13.	Copy/Replay	Used by 1 (1%) player	1 Regional win
13.	Discard/Go	Used by 1 (1%) player	1 Regional win
13.	Discard/Recycle	Used by 1 (1%) player
13.	Go/Utilize	Used by 1 (1%) player

Predictions

James' Accuracy	Kris' Accuracy	Public Predictors' Accuracy
17/47 (36%)	14/47 (30%)	12/47 (26%)

This week's rearranged Second Edition Regional in the Netherlands, that was due to take place last weekend, has reduced Michael Van Breemen's week 5 accuracy a little. Kris and I got that one correct. With the remaining eleven results from this week, Kris and I have been out-predicted by a member of the public for the first time. Tyler Fultz (DJstormtrooper) had an accuracy of 55% in his eleven predictions. That's quite a feat! Kris and I were just one prediction behind Tyler with five correct each. Jim Sharp (jss_hobbie) didn't perform quite so well, with only two correct predictions. He still makes third place in the public predictor league table though. Being the gracious victor that I am, Tyler's picks have been added to the overall public accuracy figures above. Despite his boost, you lot are still in last place! A lot is riding on the shoulders of interviewee, Matthew Hayes (karonofborg13), this week.

Past Public Predictors
Week 6 (b)	Tyler Fultz (DJstormtrooper)	6/11 (55%)
Week 3	Ben Hosp (bhosp)	2/5 (40%)
Week 6 (a)	Jim Sharp (jss_hobbie)	2/10 (20%)
Week 5	Michael Van Breemen (The Ninja Scot)	3/16 (19%)
Week 4	Shane Brierley (Shanebrier)	1/8 (13%)
Week 1	Will Hoskin (Gumbo)	0/3 (0%)
Week 2	Kenneth Tufts (Worf Son of Mogh)	0/4 (0%)

Week 7 Preview

The complete schedule can be found in the article 2012 Regional Championships Schedule. There are seven Regional tournaments this week:

Saturday 12th May		Sunday 13th May
Second Edition (Standard) GameKnight Games and Cool Stuff 726 Osborne Street Winnipeg, MB R3L 2C2 Canada [Discuss] [Pre-register]	Second Edition (Standard) Kaiserpalast Pressather Strasse 113 92637 Weiden Germany [Discuss] [Pre-register]	First Edition (Sealed) Good Games Brisbane 74 Little Edward Street Spring Hill, QLD 4000 Australia [Discuss] [Pre-register]	First Edition (OTF) State Library of Western Australia 25 Francis Street Northbridge, WA 6003 Australia [Discuss] [Pre-register]
Tribbles (Standard) Kaiserpalast Pressather Strasse 113 92637 Weiden Germany [Discuss] [Pre-register]	First Edition (Sealed) Rusty's Pizza 3731 State Street Santa Barbara, CA 93105 United States [Discuss] [Pre-register]	First Edition (Block Constr.) FanBoy3 17 Newton Street Manchester, M1 1FZ United Kingdom [Discuss] [Pre-register]

GameKnight Games and Cool Stuff: This is the third year this Rura Penthe Regional has been organized. It began two years ago as the only Regional in Canada. This year, there are four other Regionals in Canada besides this one. It looks like players numbers are increasing too, with a number of American players crossing the border for this tournament. Following the tight finish at the Andoria Regional in Minnesota last weekend, two of the protagonists - winner Matthew Hayes (karonofborg13), and third place finisher Kris Sonsteby (LORE) - will be looking for a rematch. Matthew won the title last year, and has won seven of his last nine tournaments. In contrast, Kris has only won five of his last nine tournaments. Challenging these two players will be local player Keith Morris (Foreman). Keith has only played in one tournament this year, but he won it and took the title of Canadian National Champion in the process. I think any of these players could win, but Kris has the motivation. He lost out on the Andoria Regional by the narrowest of margins, and he'll be gunning to make sure it doesn't happen again this time.

Kris: Kris Sonsteby to win. Why? Despite being on the same card several times, The Old Pro and The Foreman have never squared off against each other. And while Mr. Morris holds the home field advantage on Saturday, Mr. Sonsteby happens to be Money, Inc.'s most notorious road warrior, acquiring Regional gold twice in the past 24 months outside of TBG Headquarters.

Matthew: I have to give the nod to my fellow local, Mike "Griffeyfanatic" Rudolph. I, of course, would like to earn back-to-back titles; but nominate him, in all fairness, and support.

Past Regional results at GameKnight Games and Cool Stuff:
2011, won by Matthew Hayes (karonofborg13) playing Borg.
2010 (alternate venue), won by Mark Morris (BaronMorrath) playing Romulan.
2009, not held.
2008, not held.

Kaiserpalast (Second Edition): This Vandros IV Regional returns for the second year. Last year, it had to be rescheduled following a low turnout, but that shouldn't be a problem this year as there are already five players pre-registered. Among them are last year's winner, and #4 ranked player in the world Johannes Klarhauser (Kaiser); and 2010 World Champion, and #13 ranked player in the world Tobias Rausmann (garetjax). Johannes has won five of the seven tournaments he has played this year, and Tobias has won four of the eight tournaments he has played. In what may be an omen, the warm-up event a couple of weeks ago only saw 330 points scored across the entire tournament. Johannes won that one with a total score of 130 points over three rounds. Last year I picked Tobias to win; and, after sending the obligatory hate mail for not picking him my way, Johannes took the title. This year, I'll pick Johannes to win, and expect more hate mail after the pressure of being favorite gets to him on Saturday.

Kris: Johannes Klarhauser to win. Why? Kaiser K is the toast of the coast in Windhoek, having been victorious in five out of the past seven brawls held there. Despite a losing record against The Total Package, I'll stake my reputation on him adding to his running list of Regional titles this weekend.

Matthew: Tobias Rausmann.

Past Regional results at Kaiserpalast:
2011, won by Johannes Klarhauser (Kaiser) playing Klingon.
2010, not held.
2009, not held.
2008, not held.

Kaiserpalast (Tribbles): The double-header in Weiden, Germany continues with this Tribbles Regional following the Second Edition Regional earlier in the day. This may be the first Tribbles Regional at the venue, but there have been a number of regular Tribbles tournaments at the venue in the past year. Johannes Klarhauser (Kaiser) has won three, while Tobias Rausmann (garetjax) and Markus Eberlein (eberlems) each have two wins to their name. Johannes has averaged 538,655 Tribbles scored at his last four tournaments, and is the form player having won the last two. He is my pick to win.

Kris: Markus Eberlein to win. Why? Kaiser K and The Total Package have both fared better in Battle Royale's of late, but a friend in need is a pest in that type of match. With those two busy slugging it out with one another, a former “Family” member such as The Missing Link should have no problem taking advantage of the situation. If the ref doesn't see it, it's not illegal, Gorilla!

Matthew: Johannes Klarhauser.

There are no past Tribbles Regional results at Kaiserpalast.

Rusty's Pizza: The inaugural Risa Regional in Santa Barbara, California last year attracted twelve players, and was the best attended First Edition Regional that year. A number of different players have won tournaments at the venue since then, but no one player has dominated. Not that those past results would be much of an indicator for this event, as it is to be a draft. Included among the boosters being drafted are Blaze of Glory boosters, so if you want to get your hands on some hard-to-find cards, you should pre-register now. Due to limited booster availability, this event is limited to twelve players. Of the six pre-registered players, two stand head and shoulders above the others with their sealed deck experience. Jeremy Commandeur (Commandeur) has won four of the nine sealed deck tournaments he has played in, and Stephen Lee (grendelX) has won three of the twelve sealed deck tournaments he has played in. Stephen won his last two events, while Jeremy hasn't won in almost two years. However, when it comes to sealed deck win percentages, Stephen stands at 59% while Jeremy's is much higher at 70%. For this reason, Jeremy is my pick to win.

Kris: Jeremy Commandeur to win. Why? The man's the reigning World's Heavyweight Champion and he's already collected one Regional title this year. But as you know, Gorilla, its feast or famine in this business so if he can gorge himself on gold, I say do it!

Matthew: Stephen "grendelX" Lee. He's my two-time Worlds Team tourney teammate, gotta root for him, as he's a good friend.

Past Regional results at Rusty's Pizza:
2011, won by Jeremy Commandeur (Commandeur) playing Federation.
2010, not held.
2009, not held.
2008, not held.

Good Games Brisbane: The first of two First Edition tournaments to be held in Australia on Sunday, this Briar Patch Regional is an OTSD (Official Tournament Sealed Deck) tournament. It was the same format last year, when eight players contested for the title. Brothers Ben Dillon (Broshak) and Greg Dillon (Latok) finished top of the pile then, each with four wins and one loss. Ben took the title thanks to his third round victory over Greg. Since then, Greg won the 2011 Australian National Championships (also a sealed deck tournament), and the 2011 Australian Continental Championships. Both players also have a handful of constructed tournament victories under their belts too. Based on his slightly better sealed deck experience, I think Greg will win this one.

Kris: Ben Dillion to win. Why? Under my tutelage, The Brain Busters were one of the most brutish tag teams on the planet in the late '80's. And while it technically will be every man for himself in there, I imagine that just like the old days, the Dillion duo will work over all of their opponents in tandem.

Matthew: Ben Dillon. He's got eight wins to his brother Greg's seven, I'm just going with my gut feeling.

Past Regional results at Good Games Brisbane:
2011 (alternate venue), won by Ben Dillon (Broshak) playing Federation / Romulan.
2010, not held.
2009, not held.
2008, not held.

State Library of Western Australia: Just 2,700 miles (4,300 Km) - or two solid days driving - away from the Regional in Brisbane, this First Edition Deep Space Station K-7 Regional takes place in Perth. The last two First Edition Regionals in the city have finished in exactly the same order: Matthew Townsend (thac0276) winning, followed by Robert Dawson (TBT) then Matthyas Kiraly (stoovie) and Daniel Hyde (zephrem). The group have only played one First Edition tournament since the Regional last year, and Robert won that ahead of Matthew in second place. Looking at overall win percentages, Matthyas comes out on top ahead of Robert. Looking at head-to-head results, Matthyas has the best record; but his record versus Robert is only 50%. Looking at the ratings, Matthyas is ranked #1 in Australia, but Robert is only one point behind him. Different metrics are suggesting different winners, so I'm leaving it a highly complicated formula involving a Google search for "shrimp on the barbie", watching "Crocodile" Dundee backwards while drinking Fosters, and several other stereotypical actions that are sure to land me in hot water when I fly out to Australia for the World Championships in September. Robert to win.

Kris: Matthyas Kiraly to win. Why? In addition to doubling as a combatant and the guy dressed as a zebra, the man also carries a 72% win percentage into this brawl. He's also taken home Regional gold before, so mark my words, Gorilla, history is gonna repeat itself!

Matthew: Matthew Townsend, considering if he participates, of course. Probably because we're both Matthews that play, gotta stick together.

Past Regional results at State Library of Western Australia:
2011 (alternate venue), won by Matthew Townsend (thac0276) playing Cardassian.
2010 (alternate venue), won by Matthew Townsend (thac0276) playing Klingon.
2009 (alternate venue), won by Matthyas Kiraly (stoovie) playing Federation.
2008, not held.

Fanboy3: The final Regional of the weekend takes place in Manchester, United Kingdom - in the Omarion Nebula Region. The group only started sanctioning tournaments one year ago after a two-year period without any tournaments. Since then, they have organized five tournaments, including the 2011 United Kingom National Championships. Tournament director Danny Nuttall (nuttersuclan) won three of those tournaments, including the Nationals, and must be favorite to win this one too. His closest rated challenger is Paddy Tye (KazonPADD), but given that he'll be "hung-over from a two-day stag do", I'm not expecting too much from him. Danny to win this one.

Kris: Paddy Tye to win. Why? My sources tell me that The Belfast Bruiser trained alongside current T2E World Champion The Natural, and having never beaten Mr. Nuttall in a match before I'd say he's due for a "W," Gorilla.

Matthew: Danny Nuttall. Considering that neither Hoskin brother has pre-registered, otherwise my choice would be wholly different.

There are no past First Edition Regional results at Fanboy3

Next Week

A review of the seven results from week 7, an interview with a winning player, more statistics, and a preview of the three Regional Championships taking place in week 8.

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