#542041
Day 4 was an interesting one. I only received one ballot, from a European player, and while the bubble didn't move much, the outliers did.
The number of "Green Zone" cards - cards that are almost certain to be enshrined - increased from 1 to 3; The cream of this class is definitely rising to the top.
At the same time, the number of "Red Zone" cards - cards that approximately need a miracle to even work their way back into consideration - ALSO increased from 17 to 24.
How can one ballot have so much power, you ask? Simple: It was the 26th ballot received, which matches the turnout for 2018. We're now in the "turnout zone" - the range where past results resemble present results enough to start making some projections. At this point it would take 10 more ballots to exceed the highest turnout on record (2019 - 35 Ballots), and in some cases, even if all 10 of those ballots were "Yes" votes for some of these cards, they STILL wouldn't clear the 65% threshold necessary for enshrinement in the Hall of Fame.
This is also why the "Green Zone" count is so much lower - No votes carry more weight than Yes votes, so you need more Yes votes to lock up a spot. While 10 straight No votes might knock some of these top cards off their perch, based on what I've seen so far, I'd be surprised if this set of cards got that much resistance from the community given that same community's overwhelming support to date.
Now, having said all of that, nothing is set in stone. Projections are just that, and upsets have been known to happen. But even if they don't, that's only 27 out of 82 cards that have been "called" - which means there's 55 cards whose fate is still squarely within your - the community's - hands.
Thank you to everyone who has voted so far and given us such strong turnout in only 4 days of voting! Keep those ballots coming in!
The number of "Green Zone" cards - cards that are almost certain to be enshrined - increased from 1 to 3; The cream of this class is definitely rising to the top.
At the same time, the number of "Red Zone" cards - cards that approximately need a miracle to even work their way back into consideration - ALSO increased from 17 to 24.
How can one ballot have so much power, you ask? Simple: It was the 26th ballot received, which matches the turnout for 2018. We're now in the "turnout zone" - the range where past results resemble present results enough to start making some projections. At this point it would take 10 more ballots to exceed the highest turnout on record (2019 - 35 Ballots), and in some cases, even if all 10 of those ballots were "Yes" votes for some of these cards, they STILL wouldn't clear the 65% threshold necessary for enshrinement in the Hall of Fame.
This is also why the "Green Zone" count is so much lower - No votes carry more weight than Yes votes, so you need more Yes votes to lock up a spot. While 10 straight No votes might knock some of these top cards off their perch, based on what I've seen so far, I'd be surprised if this set of cards got that much resistance from the community given that same community's overwhelming support to date.
Now, having said all of that, nothing is set in stone. Projections are just that, and upsets have been known to happen. But even if they don't, that's only 27 out of 82 cards that have been "called" - which means there's 55 cards whose fate is still squarely within your - the community's - hands.
Thank you to everyone who has voted so far and given us such strong turnout in only 4 days of voting! Keep those ballots coming in!
"I won't kill you... but I don't have to save you." - Batman
#RenewTheOrville
#RenewTheOrville