#559720
My last post got taken down for "divulging privileged information" - a debatable point at best - but here's something that I don't need to be an insider to figure out:
2e Participation has declined precipitously in the last year.
"But Brian, of COURSE participation has declined, we're still in the middle of a global pandemic!" you might say, and you'd be right, COVID is definitely still a factor.
But the numbers seem to indicate something else is in play.
To wit:
The number of 2e tournaments annually from 2017-2019 was around 200 per year (193 in 2017, 211 in 2018, 212 in 2019). During that same period, the number of 1e tournaments was around 100 per year (110 in 2017, 105 in 2018, 110 in 2019). So in the beforetimes, 2e had a roughly 2:1 advantage in event count over 1e.
Then 2020 happened.
COVID put a dent in organized play across the board, and event counts in both games fell significantly in absolute terms - 119 2e events, 59 1e events - but that 2:1 ratio was maintained.
Now we're in 2021, and COVID is definitely still a thing, but something interesting has happened. Looking at completed + scheduled events for 2021, the count currently stands at 66 2e events, and 57 1e events.
So even accounting for the pandemic, 1e participation is roughly the same as last year, but 2e participation has declined an additional 45% from last year's already-COVID-reduced numbers, and the 2e:1e ratio is now 1.16:1 - i.e., 2e and 1e are approaching parity.
I'm not sure if anyone has looked at this before, but I thought it was worth putting out there for consideration.
I have my own thoughts on possible causes of this development, but my goal here isn't to editorialize, it's to present facts, and the fact that one game has stayed basically the same in pandemic-adjusted terms while the other has dropped precipitously would seem to indicate that there's reasons other than the pandemic. I'll leave the possible reasons for this divergence between 1e and 2e participation as an exercise to the reader.
2e Participation has declined precipitously in the last year.
"But Brian, of COURSE participation has declined, we're still in the middle of a global pandemic!" you might say, and you'd be right, COVID is definitely still a factor.
But the numbers seem to indicate something else is in play.
To wit:
The number of 2e tournaments annually from 2017-2019 was around 200 per year (193 in 2017, 211 in 2018, 212 in 2019). During that same period, the number of 1e tournaments was around 100 per year (110 in 2017, 105 in 2018, 110 in 2019). So in the beforetimes, 2e had a roughly 2:1 advantage in event count over 1e.
Then 2020 happened.
COVID put a dent in organized play across the board, and event counts in both games fell significantly in absolute terms - 119 2e events, 59 1e events - but that 2:1 ratio was maintained.
Now we're in 2021, and COVID is definitely still a thing, but something interesting has happened. Looking at completed + scheduled events for 2021, the count currently stands at 66 2e events, and 57 1e events.
So even accounting for the pandemic, 1e participation is roughly the same as last year, but 2e participation has declined an additional 45% from last year's already-COVID-reduced numbers, and the 2e:1e ratio is now 1.16:1 - i.e., 2e and 1e are approaching parity.
I'm not sure if anyone has looked at this before, but I thought it was worth putting out there for consideration.
I have my own thoughts on possible causes of this development, but my goal here isn't to editorialize, it's to present facts, and the fact that one game has stayed basically the same in pandemic-adjusted terms while the other has dropped precipitously would seem to indicate that there's reasons other than the pandemic. I'll leave the possible reasons for this divergence between 1e and 2e participation as an exercise to the reader.
"I won't kill you... but I don't have to save you." - Batman
#RenewTheOrville
#RenewTheOrville