[edgeofhearing]

It's a new Regional season, and it's time for a new predictions competition. Unlike last year, we're guessing who will be the Most Improved player by rating after the Regional. Just like previous years, the winner will get an Ambassador Foil, guesses need to be made before the day of the event, and non-Regional events during Regional season will be used as a tiebreaker.

https://www.trekcc.org/tournament/index ... ntID=11131
North Dakota Regional: Fargo, ND
Last Year's Attendance: 4 Players
Last Year's Winner: Kevin Jaeger
Preregistered This Year: Matthew Hayes (1553) - other predicted attendees are in this thread.
My Prediction: The Cage will be legal at this event, and Mr. Hayes seems pretty excited about it. I think he'll channel that into a big ratings gain.

[jadziadax8]

Ben!


Sent through Subspace from the Starship Enterprise

[Iron Prime]

Thomas.

[sexecutioner]

Heaney.

He's had more experience with The Cage, so it's his time to show the competition how TOS Feds are meant to be played.

[LORE]

Heavy Metal James Heaney

[Professor Scott]

Heaney

[DarkSabre]

heaney!

[BCSWowbagger]

I'm truly flattered by the consensus in this thread, but I'm picking Hayes.

Suppose both Hayes and I both play and win against Parmenter (1515) and Norman (1500) -- the two expected top-rated players at the event besides Hayes and me -- before facing one another in the final (Hayes 1553; Heaney 1689).

Even if I win that game (and thus the tournament), Hayes ends up with +17 for the day. Sure, I get +27 in that scenario, and still win this contest, thanks to the inflated K-value of Regionals... but if I pull a round-one game against a lower-rated player, my ratings lead shrinks rapidly.

And if I lose a game? I could still win the event, but I'm basically out of the running for ratings points gain at that point.

Combine with the facts that (a) I've never won a regional, even when trying quite hard, and (b) I'm deliberately not trying hard and not bringing any of my more "competitive" decks (it's actually a silly idea I had years ago and always wanted to try) because there will be newbies there, and I think Lucas has it right: Hayes has the best chance at the biggest ratings gain.

He is still my rival, however, and I still plan to defeat him gloriously in Victory Points. When he sees my dilemma combos... ooooooooh I can't wait.

[Armus]

Is the list in the tourney thread reasonably correct?

I.e., is Jason riding along with James?

[BCSWowbagger]

I haven't heard from Jason, so my assumption at this point is that he's working that weekend and can't make it. Could be wrong, hope I am!

[karonofborg13]

Well, when I got home tonight from my weekly commander game night, I had a message in my in box from Jason. As it currently stands, he will be trekking up to Fargo with James. Awesome!

So, yes, Brian, the list and my thread should be spot on, I'm expecting about 9 total players (Ben J., James, Jason, Ian, Ben D., Austen, John, Thomas, and myself). Hope that helps.

-Matthew

[Armus]

Well, when I got home tonight from my weekly commander game night, I had a message in my in box from Jason. As it currently stands, he will be trekking up to Fargo with James. Awesome!

So, yes, Brian, the list and my thread should be spot on, I'm expecting about 9 total players (Ben J., James, Jason, Ian, Ben D., Austen, John, Thomas, and myself). Hope that helps.

-Matthew

Good enough for me. Jason it is!

[Armus]

Congrats to Mr. Heaney on a 3-0 finish, a +32 ratings point gain, and, apparently his first ever Regional win!