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Second Edition Playtest Manager
By Faithful Reader (Ross Fertel)
 - Second Edition Playtest Manager
 -  
Continuing Committee Member - Retired
#571788
Suppose I have a game show coming up. prize is like ten trillion dollars or somesuch. Don't worry, I've got the cash on hand, but I am wondering what the win rate should be? If it is zero, no one will want to play but if it is guaranteed, the it will become unprofitable and boring.

What should the win rate be?
 
 - Alpha Quadrant
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#572043
The answer is highly dependent on your objective function. Namely, the answer relies on your valued trade-off between people playing/watching the game and what you lose by paying out the prize. There is additionally a social psychology aspect as well, as the excitement one has in the game is also dependent on the number of people they know that play/watch the game.

You original scenario is too nebulous and far-fetched to provide a meaningful answer. A more concrete context is needed.
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By Armus (Brian Sykes)
 - The Center of the Galaxy
 -  
Regent
Community Contributor
#572045
FranklinKenter wrote: Tue Feb 15, 2022 4:59 pm The answer is highly dependent on your objective function. Namely, the answer relies on your valued trade-off between people playing/watching the game and what you lose by paying out the prize. There is additionally a social psychology aspect as well, as the excitement one has in the game is also dependent on the number of people they know that play/watch the game.

You original scenario is too nebulous and far-fetched to provide a meaningful answer. A more concrete context is needed.
Welcome to a typical Ross post. :P
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First Edition Rules Master
By BCSWowbagger (James Heaney)
 - First Edition Rules Master
 -  
Community Contributor
#572085
Daily profits from each game * win rate = size of grand prize (minus a reasonable profit for yourself)

IMO, size of the prize doesn't actually matter all that much. Jeopardy! can be as thrilling to watch as Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?, because it's about the game and the tension in getting there. (Millionaire does do a better job playing up the drama aspect, though.) As long as the amount of money in play is "lifechanging," exactly HOW lifechanging isn't that important.
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